{ "_comment": "State education appropriations per full-time-equivalent student (SHEEO SHEF, constant dollars via the HECA adjustment) against the non-resident share of GRADUATE enrolment at PUBLIC institutions in the same state (IPEDS Fall Enrolment). Built to test the usual explanation for the tuition findings -- that states withdrew support and universities recruited full-fare students. THE PANEL DOES NOT SUPPORT IT and points the other way: the half of states that cut most saw the foreign share rise 3.74 points, the half that cut least 4.96. THE PREMISE IS THE WEAKER PART, NOT THE CORRELATION: only 13 of 50 states cut in real terms at all over the period, so appropriations per student mostly ROSE and 'states withdrew support' is largely false before any correlation is considered. BUT THE BASELINE IS DOING WORK AND MUST BE STATED: this window opens in 2010, a POST-CRASH TROUGH. The median state's appropriations per FTE fell 11.1% between 2008 and 2010 and were still 5.7% BELOW the 2008 level in 2023, so measuring from 2008 reverses 'most states raised funding'. The enrolment series cannot start earlier -- IPEDS Fall Enrolment begins in 2010 here -- so the window stays and the limitation is declared rather than hidden. See tuition_and_appropriations, which runs from 2000 and shows the whole arc. The tuition finding stands; this explanation for it should not be repeated. IT DOES NOT ESTABLISH CAUSATION AND NO COEFFICIENT IS PUBLISHED: fifty states over a decade share a strong national trend, with foreign enrolment rising and appropriations falling almost everywhere, so the two correlate whether or not either drives the other. Per-state changes are reported so the spread is visible. Public institutions only, because state appropriations reach no others. Enrolment is ALL FIELDS -- IPEDS does not publish it by field.", "sources": { "funding": "SHEEO State Higher Education Finance, FY2024 report data", "enrolment": "NCES IPEDS Fall Enrolment, public institutions" }, "source_url": "https://shef.sheeo.org/data-downloads/", "years": [ 2010, 2023 ], "states": [ { "state": "Alaska", "abbr": "AK", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 21191.44, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 25179.03, "appropriations_change_pct": 18.8, "foreign_share_first": 7.4, "foreign_share_last": 6.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": -1.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 1876 }, { "state": "Alabama", "abbr": "AL", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 7686.03, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 13451.21, "appropriations_change_pct": 75.0, "foreign_share_first": 7.3, "foreign_share_last": 12.7, "foreign_share_change_pts": 5.3, "graduate_enrolment_last": 42650 }, { "state": "Arkansas", "abbr": "AR", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9209.09, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 8743.78, "appropriations_change_pct": -5.1, "foreign_share_first": 7.6, "foreign_share_last": 13.7, "foreign_share_change_pts": 6.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 20523 }, { "state": "Arizona", "abbr": "AZ", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9346.13, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7182.06, "appropriations_change_pct": -23.2, "foreign_share_first": 13.9, "foreign_share_last": 21.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.5, "graduate_enrolment_last": 47339 }, { "state": "California", "abbr": "CA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10436.04, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 15601.42, "appropriations_change_pct": 49.5, "foreign_share_first": 12.7, "foreign_share_last": 20.7, "foreign_share_change_pts": 8.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 131435 }, { "state": "Colorado", "abbr": "CO", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6270.78, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7367.8, "appropriations_change_pct": 17.5, "foreign_share_first": 7.9, "foreign_share_last": 12.6, "foreign_share_change_pts": 4.7, "graduate_enrolment_last": 40716 }, { "state": "Connecticut", "abbr": "CT", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 18943.3, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 23032.26, "appropriations_change_pct": 21.6, "foreign_share_first": 9.3, "foreign_share_last": 14.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": 5.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 12628 }, { "state": "Delaware", "abbr": "DE", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9683.52, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7598.83, "appropriations_change_pct": -21.5, "foreign_share_first": 26.3, "foreign_share_last": 30.3, "foreign_share_change_pts": 4.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 5336 }, { "state": "Florida", "abbr": "FL", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 7995.41, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 10091.52, "appropriations_change_pct": 26.2, "foreign_share_first": 12.8, "foreign_share_last": 16.8, "foreign_share_change_pts": 4.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 78118 }, { "state": "Georgia", "abbr": "GA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9928.66, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 12811.48, "appropriations_change_pct": 29.0, "foreign_share_first": 14.8, "foreign_share_last": 22.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 71908 }, { "state": "Hawaii", "abbr": "HI", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 16881.87, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 24877.61, "appropriations_change_pct": 47.4, "foreign_share_first": 14.5, "foreign_share_last": 13.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": -1.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 5037 }, { "state": "Iowa", "abbr": "IA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8345.2, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 6760.53, "appropriations_change_pct": -19.0, "foreign_share_first": 18.7, "foreign_share_last": 21.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": 3.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 14036 }, { "state": "Idaho", "abbr": "ID", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10236.13, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 11845.53, "appropriations_change_pct": 15.7, "foreign_share_first": 7.2, "foreign_share_last": 7.6, "foreign_share_change_pts": 0.4, "graduate_enrolment_last": 7971 }, { "state": "Illinois", "abbr": "IL", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 14378.59, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 22244.64, "appropriations_change_pct": 54.7, "foreign_share_first": 15.9, "foreign_share_last": 28.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": 12.5, "graduate_enrolment_last": 55747 }, { "state": "Indiana", "abbr": "IN", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 7042.5, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 6752.18, "appropriations_change_pct": -4.1, "foreign_share_first": 18.4, "foreign_share_last": 20.0, "foreign_share_change_pts": 1.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 57131 }, { "state": "Kansas", "abbr": "KS", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8065.42, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9439.83, "appropriations_change_pct": 17.0, "foreign_share_first": 13.8, "foreign_share_last": 16.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 2.7, "graduate_enrolment_last": 23139 }, { "state": "Kentucky", "abbr": "KY", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9583.63, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9226.97, "appropriations_change_pct": -3.7, "foreign_share_first": 8.0, "foreign_share_last": 7.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": -0.5, "graduate_enrolment_last": 26869 }, { "state": "Louisiana", "abbr": "LA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9325.37, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7232.1, "appropriations_change_pct": -22.4, "foreign_share_first": 10.6, "foreign_share_last": 7.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": -2.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 28929 }, { "state": "Massachusetts", "abbr": "MA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9745.96, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 16225.65, "appropriations_change_pct": 66.5, "foreign_share_first": 9.3, "foreign_share_last": 19.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 10.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 28584 }, { "state": "Maryland", "abbr": "MD", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10199.47, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 13858.8, "appropriations_change_pct": 35.9, "foreign_share_first": 9.3, "foreign_share_last": 18.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 9.2, "graduate_enrolment_last": 38682 }, { "state": "Maine", "abbr": "ME", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8955.06, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 11049.62, "appropriations_change_pct": 23.4, "foreign_share_first": 4.2, "foreign_share_last": 8.0, "foreign_share_change_pts": 3.9, "graduate_enrolment_last": 5027 }, { "state": "Michigan", "abbr": "MI", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 7492.54, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9404.96, "appropriations_change_pct": 25.5, "foreign_share_first": 14.6, "foreign_share_last": 23.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 8.8, "graduate_enrolment_last": 60099 }, { "state": "Minnesota", "abbr": "MN", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8628.33, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9641.49, "appropriations_change_pct": 11.7, "foreign_share_first": 13.4, "foreign_share_last": 18.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 5.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 23333 }, { "state": "Missouri", "abbr": "MO", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8546.19, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 8412.95, "appropriations_change_pct": -1.6, "foreign_share_first": 13.9, "foreign_share_last": 29.1, "foreign_share_change_pts": 15.2, "graduate_enrolment_last": 33032 }, { "state": "Mississippi", "abbr": "MS", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8557.72, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7745.28, "appropriations_change_pct": -9.5, "foreign_share_first": 7.3, "foreign_share_last": 10.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 3.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 15906 }, { "state": "Montana", "abbr": "MT", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6899.11, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7740.14, "appropriations_change_pct": 12.2, "foreign_share_first": 3.9, "foreign_share_last": 6.8, "foreign_share_change_pts": 3.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 5428 }, { "state": "North Carolina", "abbr": "NC", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10670.38, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 11837.46, "appropriations_change_pct": 10.9, "foreign_share_first": 10.1, "foreign_share_last": 14.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 4.4, "graduate_enrolment_last": 51505 }, { "state": "North Dakota", "abbr": "ND", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9271.01, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9442.94, "appropriations_change_pct": 1.9, "foreign_share_first": 16.0, "foreign_share_last": 17.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": 1.9, "graduate_enrolment_last": 6667 }, { "state": "Nebraska", "abbr": "NE", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10348.77, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 12875.13, "appropriations_change_pct": 24.4, "foreign_share_first": 11.2, "foreign_share_last": 12.8, "foreign_share_change_pts": 1.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 13965 }, { "state": "New Hampshire", "abbr": "NH", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 4636.86, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 4906.78, "appropriations_change_pct": 5.8, "foreign_share_first": 6.2, "foreign_share_last": 12.8, "foreign_share_change_pts": 6.7, "graduate_enrolment_last": 4018 }, { "state": "New Jersey", "abbr": "NJ", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 11986.72, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 11309.93, "appropriations_change_pct": -5.6, "foreign_share_first": 12.4, "foreign_share_last": 17.0, "foreign_share_change_pts": 4.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 41563 }, { "state": "New Mexico", "abbr": "NM", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10705.03, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 21171.69, "appropriations_change_pct": 97.8, "foreign_share_first": 10.2, "foreign_share_last": 12.0, "foreign_share_change_pts": 1.8, "graduate_enrolment_last": 12430 }, { "state": "Nevada", "abbr": "NV", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 11986.65, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9953.53, "appropriations_change_pct": -17.0, "foreign_share_first": 7.3, "foreign_share_last": 10.6, "foreign_share_change_pts": 3.3, "graduate_enrolment_last": 9172 }, { "state": "New York", "abbr": "NY", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 12295.0, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 15736.52, "appropriations_change_pct": 28.0, "foreign_share_first": 13.0, "foreign_share_last": 17.0, "foreign_share_change_pts": 4.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 71481 }, { "state": "Ohio", "abbr": "OH", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6477.58, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 6982.86, "appropriations_change_pct": 7.8, "foreign_share_first": 14.5, "foreign_share_last": 21.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.0, "graduate_enrolment_last": 61094 }, { "state": "Oklahoma", "abbr": "OK", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10256.51, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7811.1, "appropriations_change_pct": -23.8, "foreign_share_first": 12.2, "foreign_share_last": 11.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": -0.2, "graduate_enrolment_last": 24158 }, { "state": "Oregon", "abbr": "OR", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6663.41, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9839.99, "appropriations_change_pct": 47.7, "foreign_share_first": 10.2, "foreign_share_last": 14.0, "foreign_share_change_pts": 3.8, "graduate_enrolment_last": 18312 }, { "state": "Pennsylvania", "abbr": "PA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6952.27, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7381.39, "appropriations_change_pct": 6.2, "foreign_share_first": 13.8, "foreign_share_last": 16.5, "foreign_share_change_pts": 2.8, "graduate_enrolment_last": 46356 }, { "state": "Rhode Island", "abbr": "RI", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6584.11, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 8341.07, "appropriations_change_pct": 26.7, "foreign_share_first": 5.0, "foreign_share_last": 7.7, "foreign_share_change_pts": 2.7, "graduate_enrolment_last": 3663 }, { "state": "South Carolina", "abbr": "SC", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6901.77, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7551.82, "appropriations_change_pct": 9.4, "foreign_share_first": 10.2, "foreign_share_last": 12.6, "foreign_share_change_pts": 2.3, "graduate_enrolment_last": 23024 }, { "state": "South Dakota", "abbr": "SD", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 7065.69, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9066.42, "appropriations_change_pct": 28.3, "foreign_share_first": 8.0, "foreign_share_last": 17.2, "foreign_share_change_pts": 9.2, "graduate_enrolment_last": 5884 }, { "state": "Tennessee", "abbr": "TN", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9963.42, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 13817.36, "appropriations_change_pct": 38.7, "foreign_share_first": 7.2, "foreign_share_last": 13.6, "foreign_share_change_pts": 6.3, "graduate_enrolment_last": 26806 }, { "state": "Texas", "abbr": "TX", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 10422.2, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 10829.29, "appropriations_change_pct": 3.9, "foreign_share_first": 16.1, "foreign_share_last": 23.7, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.6, "graduate_enrolment_last": 166980 }, { "state": "Utah", "abbr": "UT", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8063.16, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 11253.3, "appropriations_change_pct": 39.6, "foreign_share_first": 13.4, "foreign_share_last": 13.1, "foreign_share_change_pts": -0.3, "graduate_enrolment_last": 15383 }, { "state": "Virginia", "abbr": "VA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 7192.4, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9301.16, "appropriations_change_pct": 29.3, "foreign_share_first": 10.2, "foreign_share_last": 17.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.2, "graduate_enrolment_last": 49925 }, { "state": "Vermont", "abbr": "VT", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 4361.67, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 6280.27, "appropriations_change_pct": 44.0, "foreign_share_first": 7.6, "foreign_share_last": 7.4, "foreign_share_change_pts": -0.2, "graduate_enrolment_last": 3201 }, { "state": "Washington", "abbr": "WA", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 8669.22, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 12448.98, "appropriations_change_pct": 43.6, "foreign_share_first": 11.5, "foreign_share_last": 18.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.4, "graduate_enrolment_last": 27137 }, { "state": "Wisconsin", "abbr": "WI", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 9790.34, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 9489.79, "appropriations_change_pct": -3.1, "foreign_share_first": 12.7, "foreign_share_last": 19.8, "foreign_share_change_pts": 7.1, "graduate_enrolment_last": 25929 }, { "state": "West Virginia", "abbr": "WV", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 6814.72, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 7298.6, "appropriations_change_pct": 7.1, "foreign_share_first": 8.7, "foreign_share_last": 8.2, "foreign_share_change_pts": -0.5, "graduate_enrolment_last": 10768 }, { "state": "Wyoming", "abbr": "WY", "appropriations_per_fte_first": 16554.05, "appropriations_per_fte_last": 18185.68, "appropriations_change_pct": 9.9, "foreign_share_first": 14.4, "foreign_share_last": 14.9, "foreign_share_change_pts": 0.5, "graduate_enrolment_last": 2663 } ], "states_unmatched": [], "median_split": { "cut_most": { "states": 25, "mean_appropriations_change_pct": -2.28, "mean_foreign_share_change_pts": 3.74 }, "cut_least": { "states": 25, "mean_appropriations_change_pct": 38.24, "mean_foreign_share_change_pts": 4.96 } } }